Short answer: Buy now. In most years the advice is to wait, because phones get cheaper as they age. In 2026 that pattern has broken — the memory shortage means prices are rising rather than falling, and analysts expect the pressure to continue into 2027. Waiting no longer saves you money. It costs you money.
That is an uncomfortable thing to say if you were hoping to hold out. Here is the reasoning, so you can check it rather than take it.
Why “wait for the price to drop” normally works
In an ordinary year, the mechanics are reliable. A phone launches at its highest price. Six months later a successor is announced, the older model is discounted, and festive sales push it lower still. Component costs fall over a product's life as manufacturing matures. Patience is rewarded.
Every part of that assumes component costs decline. In 2026 they are doing the opposite.
What has changed
Memory prices have risen roughly 90 to 120 per cent since late 2025 as AI data centres absorbed global DRAM and NAND supply. Brands have not made a single correction — they have repriced repeatedly as supply contracts renew.
The clearest illustration is a phone being made more expensive after launch. The OnePlus 15R has been reported as taking three separate price increases within five months, ending around ₹7,000 above where it started. That is the inverse of how the market is supposed to work.
Across 21 brands between January and May 2026, prices rose 8 to 12 per cent on average. In the sub-$200 segment, prices climbed more than 30 per cent in the first quarter alone.
The three scenarios, honestly
| If you... | Then |
|---|---|
| Need a phone now (yours is broken or dying) | Buy now. There is no version of waiting that helps you. |
| Want an upgrade but your phone works | Buy now if you were going to buy within 12 months anyway. Otherwise keep using it — the best value is the phone you already own. |
| Are waiting for a specific launch | Buy the outgoing model instead. Launch pricing is being set against current component costs, not last year's. |
Note the middle row. We are not telling you to buy a phone you do not need — a working phone kept for another year is genuinely the cheapest option available to anyone, and no discount beats not spending. The argument is only about timing a purchase you were already going to make.
What waiting actually costs you now
Three things, none of them obvious.
The price rises rather than falls. On current trends the same device is likely to cost more in six months, not less.
The specification may quietly get worse. Where brands cannot raise a price without losing a segment, they protect the price point by cutting RAM or storage. The phone you wait for may not be the phone you were waiting for.
Festive discounting may not rescue you. A Techarc survey of nearly 6,000 buyers found a majority of intended festive demand may not convert to purchases if prices keep climbing — which tells you buyers are stretched, not that discounts are coming.
The scenario where waiting still makes sense
One: if a launch you specifically want is a few weeks away and you want that device. Then wait for it, buy it, and accept that its price reflects 2026 component costs.
Two: if your current phone works fine and you were not otherwise planning to replace it. Upgrading because of price anxiety is the same mistake as upgrading because of marketing. Keep the phone. Replace the battery if it is tired. That is the genuinely cheapest path and we would rather say so.
The option most buyers are not considering
There is a third answer beyond buy-now and wait, and the market has already found it.
Counterpoint Research estimates India's second-hand smartphone market will grow around 12 per cent in 2026 while new handset sales fall roughly 11 per cent. Omdia reported that display panels shipped to the refurbishment industry overtook those going to new phone manufacturing for the first time in Q1 2026.
The reason is structural. A renewed device contains memory bought before the shortage, so it is not exposed to today's component prices. When a new mid-range phone and a two-year-old renewed flagship land at the same number, the flagship is better hardware in almost every respect that matters — display, cameras, silicon, build.
The condition is that it must be genuinely remanufactured rather than merely resold. A used phone with a tired battery and no warranty is not a hedge against price rises, it is a different risk. What makes it work is 100% battery health, over 300 quality checks, like-new condition and an 18-month warranty — longer than a new phone carries. Compare Premium Renewed iPhones or the full range.
The short version
If you need a phone, buy it now — waiting is a bet against every current forecast. If you do not need one, keep the one you have. And if you are choosing between a new mid-range device and a renewed flagship at the same price, 2026 is the year that maths changed decisively.
Related: why prices are rising · the RAM price crisis explained · is a renewed iPhone worth it?
Frequently asked questions
Should I buy a phone now or wait in 2026?
Buy now if you need one. Smartphone prices are rising rather than falling because of the global memory shortage, and analysts expect the pressure to continue into 2027, so waiting is likely to cost more rather than save money.
Will phone prices drop during festive sales in 2026?
Discounts may appear, but they are working against an underlying upward trend in component costs rather than a falling one. Survey data suggests buyers are already stretched, which is not typically the condition that produces deep discounting.
Is it better to wait for the next model?
Generally not in 2026. New launches are priced against current elevated memory costs, and some models are shipping with reduced RAM or storage to protect a price point. The outgoing model is often better value.
What is the cheapest option right now?
Keeping the phone you already own, and replacing the battery if it has degraded. If you genuinely need to replace it, a renewed flagship typically offers more hardware per rupee than a new mid-range device.
Why are renewed phones less affected by the price rise?
Their memory and storage were manufactured and fitted before the shortage, so their cost base is not exposed to current DRAM and NAND prices in the way a newly manufactured device is.
